Analysts Corner: 05/07/2024 – Global Growth on the Rebound

Weekly Market Recap

A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Weekly Macro Recap

A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.

Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT

OECD Economic Outlook: May 2024

The global economy is continuing growing at a modest pace, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. The Economic Outlook projects steady global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, the same as the 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight pick-up to 3.2% in 2025.

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/

Source: OECD

GSAM: Corporate Pension Quarterly

Private markets continue to be a large allocation for some corporate pension plans, especially for those who may be continuing to accrue benefits or have an overweight allocation following risk transfer activity.

Source: GSAM

An Evolving BRICS and Shifting World Order

As more big emerging markets join the BRICS+ nations, the grouping could give the Global South a greater voice in world affairs and challenge the domination of existing institutions.

Source: Boston Consulting Group

by Peter Donisanu

Analysts Corner: 04/30/2024 – Can the Rally Continue?

Weekly Market Recap

A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Weekly Macro Recap

A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.

Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT

Charts: Geopolitics Are Changing Fast. Here is What Data Says

The geopolitical landscape is shifting. The era of globalization is entering a new phase. Wars, elections, and protectionism are all contributing to a less certain future.

Source: Savvy Investor

Fidelity: Stocks May Have Room to Run

Investors may worry that the stock market rally that began in October 2022 and accelerated late in 2023 has made equities expensive. As of March, however, stocks’ valuations relative to bonds stood near the middle of their historical range going back to 1962, reaching the third quartile (left). After relative valuations reached similar levels in the past, the S&P 500 advanced about 74% of the time over the next 12 months (right).

Source: Fidelity

Corporate Bonds Still a Bright Spot

“We expect corporate bonds to deliver positive returns in the coming quarters, primarily due to the attractive yields. With money market rates becoming less attractive as interest rate cuts loom, further supporting inflows into corporate bonds look likely.“

Source: BNP Paribas

by Peter Donisanu

Image displaying the title 'Analysts Corner: 04/02/2024' for a weekly financial update

Analysts Corner: 04/23/2024 – High Rates Strong Global Growth

Weekly Market Recap

A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Weekly Macro Recap

A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.

Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT

Fixed Income Outlook – Not as Planned

Another higher-than-expected U.S. inflation number means the U.S. Federal Reserve should be in no rush to cut rates before price pressures subside. With the risk of inflation continuing to surprise to the upside in the near term, BNP Paribas nows expects benchmark 10-year yields to potentially retrace to 4.75%, at which point BNP Paribas would likely again go overweight duration.

Source: BNP Paribas

Macro Insights Monthly - April 2024

Recent data suggest that inflation could prove persistently high for some time and limit the room for central bank easing. Despite this high-for-long path for policy stances, investors remain convinced it will not prove sufficient to derail global growth.

Source: Rothschild & Co Asset Management

Regional Economic Outlook: Europe Apr 2024

A soft landing in Europe is within reach. Executing it will require careful monetary policy calibration. Fiscal policy needs to create buffers to tackle future shocks. Raising growth beyond the near-term recovery needs efforts to build more integrated markets with reforms needed at both domestic and regional levels.

Source: IMF

by Peter Donisanu

Analysts Corner: 04/16/2024 – Stay Focused on Earnings

Weekly Market Recap

A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Weekly Macro Recap

A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.

Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT

Inflation Wave Recedes in the Eurozone, Rises in the US

The latest data shows weaker eurozone inflation in March with headline running at 2.4% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 2.6%. Core inflation was also lower than anticipated at 2.9% YoY versus a consensus forecast of 3.1%.

Source: BNP Paribas

Stay Focused on Earnings

A growing chorus of voices has been fretting about “sticky” inflation over recent weeks. Last week’s U.S. inflation data raised it to a clamor.

Source: Neuberger Berman

Turtle Returns: The Hare and the Tortoise

Slow and steady doesn’t always win the race, but there is mounting evidence—including in our SPIVA® Scorecards—suggesting that it’s not a bad approach to the markets.

Source: S&P

by Peter Donisanu

Analysts Corner: 04/09/2024 – Strong US Economy Has Become the Consensus

Weekly Market Recap

A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Weekly Macro Recap

A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.

Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT

Strong U.S. Economy Has Become the Consensus

Strong U.S. data has pulled up expectations of economic growth and inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates. That will put downward pressure on the economy, but it remains uncertain how much it will weaken the strong economy.

Source: Nordea

The Global Credit Cycle

Do global credit conditions affect local credit and business cycles? Using a large cross-section of equity and corporate bond market returns around the world, the authors construct a novel global credit factor and a global risk factor that jointly price the international equity and bond cross-section. They uncover a global credit cycle in risky asset returns and show that the global pricing of corporate credit is a fundamental factor in driving local credit conditions and real outcomes.

Source: FRBNY

2024, a Crucial Year for Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is a pivotal theme driving the digital transformation across all sectors of the global economy. As the technology continues to proliferate into new applications, 2024 is already shaping up to be a crucial year in the development of the investment opportunities that AI offers.