Analysts Corner: 12/12/23
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady Wednesday. Wall Street will be Listening for Any Hints of Cuts.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady this Wednesday during the central bank’s last policy meeting of the year. It is also expected to caution against making rate cuts anytime soon, defying the expectations of some on Wall Street who expect that easing to happen as early as March.
Source: Yahoo Finance
UK Firms Pause China Investment Decisions as Growth Slows: Survey
Sixty percent of British firms feel that a slowing Chinese economy presents a bigger challenge to their operations in the Asian giant than strict COVID curbs in place until late last year, according to the British Chamber of Commerce in China.
Source: Reuters
Beyond China: What Does the Rest of the EM Equity World Have to Offer?
Research suggests that investors should consider breaking out emerging market (EM) ex-China equities from Chinese equities in their EM allocations. EM ex-China offers the potential for higher returns and lower risk than China, as well as a superior translation of GDP growth to earnings and returns.
Source: Wellington
Private Debt: A Primer
At $1.6 trillion in AUM globally, private debt (excluding real estate) has already cemented its status as a sizable and scalable asset class for a wide range of long-term investors. That said, it still represents a modest 12% of the broader alternative asset universe, which totaled $13 trillion as of March 2023, per Preqin
Source: Blackrock
Can Chinese Equities Withstand a Slowing Economy?
China’s multi-decade period of high growth has come to an end, but the opportunities for investors have not, argue Evan Brown and Sylvia Liang.
Source: UBS
Analysts Corner: 12/05/23
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Reports of AI Ending Human Labour May Be Greatly Exaggerated
In this article researchers from the ECB show that during the deep learning boom of the 2010s, occupations potentially more exposed to AI-enabled technologies actually increased their employment share in Europe. However, the jury is still out on whether the same can be expected from new developments in AI-enabled technologies. When the verdict comes in, it could be win or lose–not only for jobs, but also for equality and prosperity in Europe (and the world).
Source: European Central Bank
9 of Charlie Munger's Best Investing Lessons and Words of Wisdom
People have been honoring the iconic investor by passing around their favorite Charlie Munger quotes following news of his death. Here are a few.
Source: Morningstar
Central Bank Digital Currency and Privacy: A Randomized Survey Experiment
Privacy protection is among the key features to consider in the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC). Using a nationally representative sample of over 3,500 participants, BIS conducted a randomized online survey experiment to examine how the willingness to use CBDC as a means of payment varies with the degree of privacy protection and information provision on the privacy benefits of using CBDC.
Source: Bank for International Settlements
Inflation Then (1979-85) and Now (2020-23): Why It's Easier to Fight Inflation Today
The current period of inflation has been dominated by a positive demand shock and favourable initial conditions, such as low inflation expectations. This column argues that these two factors make the job of central banks today much easier than during the 1979-85 period. Provided no new disruptive shocks occur, the policies of disinflation since 2021 should lead to a swifter and much less costly path towards price stability compared to the 1970s–1980s. Monetary authorities both in the euro area and in the US should not raise interest rates too high and for too long, producing an unnecessary recession.
Source: Vox
Logistics: Global Outlook Q3 2023
Investors continue to back the structural drivers around e-commerce and evolving supply chains. But uncertainty in the economic environment and future path of interest rates is encouraging caution in the short term. Not so long ago, investors would pick up any shed they could get their hands on, but now the definition of prime is being squeezed by a shrinking pool of active buyers.
Source: GCM
Analysts Corner: 11/28/23
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Volatility a Key Feature of New Market Regime
The plunge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields last week on news of slowing U.S. inflation shows volatility is persistent in the new regime of greater macro uncertainty. Compounding this is a disconnect between the latest cyclical market narrative of a strong expansion – and the reality we have just climbed out of a deep economic hole caused by the pandemic.
Source: Blackrock
U.S. Retail Black Friday Deals Arrive Early
Black Friday deals are arriving earlier this year as U.S. consumers are still dealing with higher prices from a year ago. As a result, retailers know that shoppers have become price-sensitive and are looking for steep promotions and discounts. Therefore, retailers have ramped up the amount of merchandise on sale, hoping that more shoppers will open their wallets ahead of Black Friday.
Source: Refinitiv
China Central Bank Chief Flags Regional Debt Servicing 'difficulties'
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, warned on Tuesday that certain financially weaker regions in the west and north of the country may have "difficulties servicing local government debts."
Source: Nikkei Asia
West's De-risking Starts to Bite China's Prospects
Foreign investors have been sour on China for most of this year, but data released over the past month has provided clear evidence of the negative impact de-risking strategies are having on the world's second-largest economy.
Source: Reuters
Treasury to Borrow $776 billion in the Final Three Months of the Year
The U.S. government’s borrowing needs will decline slightly in the final three months of 2023 from the prior quarter, a potentially important development during a turbulent time for the global bond market.
Source: CNBC
Lawmakers are Ditching Congress at a Record Pace
Lawmakers are fleeing Congress at a record clip, with 13 senators and representatives announcing this month they won't seek re-election — the highest number in more than a decade, according to Ballotpedia.
Source: Axios
Analysts Corner: 11/21/23
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Thanksgiving Dinner Taking a Smaller Bite Out of Budgets
Consumers can expect a more modest increase in Thanksgiving dinner prices for this year’s Turkey Day celebrations. This year’s estimates from the Farm Bureau put the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 at $61.17, down 4.5% compared to 2022. But that’s still 25% higher than pre-pandemic.
Source: CME Group
Vanguard’s Principles for Investing Success
Investing success can mean different things to different investors. Determining what success means is essential to understanding what path to follow.
Source: Vanguard
Macro Implications of the AI Revolution: Is the Market Right?
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could alter the macro environment meaningfully by raising both trend growth and expectations of long-term real interest rates, but by how much and when is far less clear.
Source: Wellington Asset Management
China’s Economic Crossroads: Can Growth Be Revived?
Note: this is a webinar featuring Alpine Macro’s Yan Wang.
Source: Macrobond
De-dollarization Dilemmas
This piece from Invesco explores how, while currencies like the Chinese RMB might continue to gain ground against the USD, the buck likely will remain a preeminent global reserve currency for some time.
Source: Invesco
Why Higher Yields Might Lead to Higher Returns for Retirement Investors
Aliaga-Díaz said. “Retirement investors who might be considering reducing their exposure to bonds because of the pain endured during the recent rise in interest rates might want to reassess their situation, as the benefit of higher rates to retirement portfolios is about to come.”
Source: Vanguard