Analysts Corner: 06/25/2024 – Mid Year Economic Outlooks
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/weekly_market_recap_20240624.pdf
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/weekly_macro_recap_20240624.pdf
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Opportunities Amidst Divergence
A significant risk that markets are overly positive and have not fully priced in potential problems. Given the positive macro backdrop, an overweight to risky assets is favored but keep risks tightly controlled, as very tight valuations limit the upside for risky assets.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Opportunities-Amidst-Divergence.pdf
Source: Invesco
Renewed Growth, New Challenges
Despite improvements, many investors are likely to be distracted by increasing noise as November’s US election draws near. This election is significant, but we believe it is unlikely to change the direction of the world economy and markets. That said, there are many other risks, including potential inflationary shocks and unpredictable geopolitical flareups.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Renewed-Growth-New-Challenges.pdf
Source: Citi
From Stability to Agility: Nine Implications for a New Investment Landscape
The underlying assumptions that have driven many investment strategies over the last 40 years must be reexamined. This paper explores nine implications that can help empower investors with the agility needed to navigate the uncertainties of the new economic environment.
Source: Nuveen
Analysts Corner: 06/18/2024 – More Economic Data Needed
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/weekly-market-recap-20240617.pdf
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/weekly-macro-recap-20240618.pdf
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Goldilocks, for Now
The US economy has recently experienced the benign combination of steady growth and slowing inflation; a sort of renewed ‘Goldilocks’. The volatility in economic data since the pandemic, however, suggests the situation is unlikely to last. We expect growth to slow modestly in the quarters ahead, with core inflation remaining comparatively high.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Goldilocks-For-Now.pdf
Source: BNP Paribas
Fed Policy: One Month of Good Data Is Not Enough
Good news on U.S. inflation in May did not sway the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could come sooner.
Source: PIMCO
What to Watch in 2024 Elections
Over half the world's population goes to the polls in 2024. Governments and candidates have limited solutions to key financial issues for voters.
Source: Blackrock
Analysts Corner: 06/11/2024 – Risk Asset Rally is Broadening Globally
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/weekly-macro-recap-20240611.pdf
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/weekly-macro-recap-20240611.pdf
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Stock Market Sector Update
The hunt for positive growth momentum and attractive valuations is starting to shift investors’ focus away from the U.S. and towards more regionally diversified exposure, where the scope for catch up appears greater.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/European-Elections-Whats-At-Stake.pdf
Source: JPAM
Equity Market Guide
A solid Q1 earnings season supported the uptrend in equities; and importantly, forward estimates have held steady at healthy growth rates (i.e. double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth expectations for 2024 and 2025).
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/equity-market-guide.pdf
Source: Raymond James
European Elections: What’s At Stake
Europe might be losing international competitiveness, but in the coming days it will return to the global centre stage with three major events: the ECB’s rate cut decisions, European elections and, of course, the European Football Championship.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/European-Elections-Whats-At-Stake.pdf
Source: ING
Analysts Corner: 06/04/2024 – Slower Growth and Rate Cut Optimism Fuel Market Rally
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Not Your Typical Rate Cutting Cycle
The ECB is set to start easing before the Fed, but a wider policy gap between them will be temporary, even if a Fed hike is not impossible.
Source: Blackrock
Market Drivers Insights Report
Risk appetite recovers on easing financial conditions but drives US 12m forward PE to more than one standard deviation above the 10-year average.
Source: Wilshire Indexes
Currency Volatility: Will US Dollar Strength Continue?
In light of improving global growth and repricing of Fed expectations, will the U.S. dollar sustain its strength in 2024? And what’s the outlook for other major currencies?
Source: JPM
Analyst's Corner: 05/28/2024 – Startups Paying Out Less in Equity Comp
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-market-update-20240527.pdf
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-macro-recap-20240528.pdf
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Startups are hiring fewer workers and paying out less in equity comp
The Equity Podcast is about the business of startups, where they unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines.
https://techcrunch.com/podcast/startups-are-hiring-fewer-workers-and-paying-out-less-in-equity-comp/
Source: Tech Crunch
Challenges remain but IPO outlook brightens
Global IPO markets have had a comparatively positive start to 2024 after a challenging year. Investors and IPO candidates hope that stable interest rates and pent-up demand will support an increasing flow of IPO activity in the months ahead.
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/global-ipos-2024-outlook-brightens
Source:White & Castle
Negotiating Stock Options And Restricted Stock Units: 7 Points To Consider Before You Try
Depending on your professional clout and the company’s need, you may be able to negotiate your equity compensation when you are hired or get promoted.
Source: Forbes
Analysts Corner: 05/21/2024 – Stay Diversified As Markets Diverge
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-market-recap-20240521.pdf
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-macro-recap-20240521.pdf
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Global Financial Stability Report 2024
Near-term risks to global financial stability have receded as disinflation is entering its last mile but medium-term vulnerabilities are mounting.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Global-Financial-Stability-Report.pdf
Source: IMF
When Markets Diverge, Opportunities Emerge
Shifting dynamics among global economies and markets present a range of opportunities for multi-asset portfolios.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/When-Markets-Diverge-Opportunities-Emerge.pdf
Source: PIMCO
3 Assets That Might Not Diversify as Well as You Think
Real estate, high-yield bonds, and cryptocurrency don’t always live up to their reputation as portfolio diversifiers.
https://franklinmadisonadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/3-Assets-That-Might-Not-Diversify-as-Well-as-You-Think-Morningstar.pdf
Source: Morningstar
Analysts Corner: 05/13/2024 – Can the Economy Avoid Stagflation?
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Watching for Mean Reversion, Technology Diffusion, and the Next Inflection Point
Is there still a case for small caps? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Peter Carpi, a small- and micro-cap manager, consider the evidence and the asset allocation implications
Source: Wellington
Monthly Market Viewpoint – Delayed Landing
One might have thought that four years after the start of the pandemic, investors might have some confidence in the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Unfortunately, that is not the case.
Source: BNP Paribas
Do We Now Need to Worry About Stagflation?
Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, offered a memorable antidote to the gloomy sentiment at his last press conference on May 1: “I don’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘flation’.”
Source: Beuberger Berman
Analysts Corner: 05/07/2024 – Global Growth on the Rebound
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
OECD Economic Outlook: May 2024
The global economy is continuing growing at a modest pace, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. The Economic Outlook projects steady global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, the same as the 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight pick-up to 3.2% in 2025.
https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/
Source: OECD
GSAM: Corporate Pension Quarterly
Private markets continue to be a large allocation for some corporate pension plans, especially for those who may be continuing to accrue benefits or have an overweight allocation following risk transfer activity.
Source: GSAM
An Evolving BRICS and Shifting World Order
As more big emerging markets join the BRICS+ nations, the grouping could give the Global South a greater voice in world affairs and challenge the domination of existing institutions.
Source: Boston Consulting Group
Analysts Corner: 04/30/2024 – Can the Rally Continue?
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Charts: Geopolitics Are Changing Fast. Here is What Data Says
The geopolitical landscape is shifting. The era of globalization is entering a new phase. Wars, elections, and protectionism are all contributing to a less certain future.
Source: Savvy Investor
Fidelity: Stocks May Have Room to Run
Investors may worry that the stock market rally that began in October 2022 and accelerated late in 2023 has made equities expensive. As of March, however, stocks’ valuations relative to bonds stood near the middle of their historical range going back to 1962, reaching the third quartile (left). After relative valuations reached similar levels in the past, the S&P 500 advanced about 74% of the time over the next 12 months (right).
Source: Fidelity
Corporate Bonds Still a Bright Spot
“We expect corporate bonds to deliver positive returns in the coming quarters, primarily due to the attractive yields. With money market rates becoming less attractive as interest rate cuts loom, further supporting inflows into corporate bonds look likely.“
Source: BNP Paribas
Analysts Corner: 04/23/2024 – High Rates Strong Global Growth
Weekly Market Recap
A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management
Weekly Macro Recap
A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.
Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT
Fixed Income Outlook – Not as Planned
Another higher-than-expected U.S. inflation number means the U.S. Federal Reserve should be in no rush to cut rates before price pressures subside. With the risk of inflation continuing to surprise to the upside in the near term, BNP Paribas nows expects benchmark 10-year yields to potentially retrace to 4.75%, at which point BNP Paribas would likely again go overweight duration.
Source: BNP Paribas
Macro Insights Monthly - April 2024
Recent data suggest that inflation could prove persistently high for some time and limit the room for central bank easing. Despite this high-for-long path for policy stances, investors remain convinced it will not prove sufficient to derail global growth.
Source: Rothschild & Co Asset Management
Regional Economic Outlook: Europe Apr 2024
A soft landing in Europe is within reach. Executing it will require careful monetary policy calibration. Fiscal policy needs to create buffers to tackle future shocks. Raising growth beyond the near-term recovery needs efforts to build more integrated markets with reforms needed at both domestic and regional levels.
Source: IMF