Weekly Market Recap: Oil Shock, Jobs Data, and a Holiday Pause
Market trading this week was driven by a rebound in stocks, rising oil prices, and Friday’s jobs report.
Stocks moved higher through Thursday, even as energy markets reacted to renewed geopolitical tension. Then today, with stock markets closed for Good Friday, the latest payrolls data showed the labor market is still holding up, while bond markets remain open for a shortened session.
By Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 had gained 3.4% for the week, the Nasdaq rose 4.4%, the Dow added 3.0%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 3.3%. That rebound helped markets recover from part of last week’s weakness, but the tone underneath the surface was still shaped by geopolitics.
Oil surged sharply after the latest U.S. rhetoric on Iran reduced confidence in a near-term diplomatic resolution. WTI crude closed Thursday at $111.54 per barrel, while Brent ended at $109.03.
Then on Friday morning, the March jobs report showed payroll growth of 178,000, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and average hourly earnings up 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year.
The week’s other key data reinforced the idea that the economy has not rolled over. ISM Manufacturing came in at 52.7 in March, marking a third straight month of expansion. That matters because it suggests the economy is still holding up even as oil prices rise.
In other words, recession fears did not get confirmed this week, but the inflation side of the equation became harder to ignore.
Key Takeaways
Oil Prices Remain the Market’s Pressure Gauge: Last week, falling oil supported hopes that the conflict might cool off. This week, that changed. The renewed spike in crude is a reminder that geopolitical risk is still feeding directly into inflation concerns and broader market sentiment.
Markets Rebounded, but the Backdrop Is Still Fragile: This week’s rally was constructive, especially because gains were broad enough to include small caps. But the rebound happened alongside a major jump in oil, which means the recovery in stocks did not come with a clean improvement in the macro backdrop.
The Labor Market Still Looks Resilient: Friday’s jobs report helped reinforce that the economy is still holding together. That may ease immediate recession concerns, but it also makes it harder to argue that the Fed will have clear room to turn more dovish if energy prices stay elevated.