Analysts Corner: 12/19/23

Weekly Market Recap

A look back at the financial markets over the past week and a look ahead at key economic developments this week.

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Weekly Macro Recap

A look back at key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that help us contextualize the current investing landscape.

Source: Luke Gromen, FFTT

The Return of the Monroe Doctrine

The Monroe Doctrine is experiencing a resurgence. As it hits its 200th anniversary this month, this time-hallowed foreign-policy principle—which declares that Washington will oppose political and military incursions into the Western Hemisphere by powers outside of it—is once again at the forefront of political debates in the United States.

Source: Foreign Policy

Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas Wars Reveal the Importance of Weapons Production

Current conflicts offer a reminder to China and the U.S.: Arms do not deliver victory only through technological advantage but also through availability.

Source: The Diplomat

Inflation: What’s Causing It and Why?

And today we’re in to talk about inflation. So annual inflation rate right now is below 4%, coming down from nearly 10% to a little over a year ago. And we’ve got two things that are going on. One that is small, that is getting bigger by the day and one that is big, that is getting smaller by the day.

Source: Zeihan on Geopolitics

Fed Lowers Inflation Forecast for 2024, Seeing Core PCE Falling to 2.4%

Committee members also upgraded their forecast for gross domestic product. They now expect GDP to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September.

Source: CNBC

European Central Bank to Focus on Shrinking Balance Sheet as Markets Bet on Rate Cuts

The European Central Bank meets this week with investors closely monitoring to see when the Frankfurt institution might start to cut interest rates.